For seeding purposes, we'll use again the actual BCS rankings achieved by the conference winners, and for those not making the BCS rankings, we'll tap the minds from the good folks at CollegeFootballNews and use their opinion of how each team ranks, from 1-120. Any independent that ranks in our top 6 will be invited, expanding the field to twelve or more teams as necessary.
| Seed | Champion | Conference | BCS/(CFN) ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Alabama | SEC | 1 |
| 2. | Texas | Big XII | 2 |
| 3. | Cincinnati | Big East | 3 |
| 4. | TCU | Mountain West | 4 |
| 5. | Boise St. | WAC | 6 |
| 6. | Oregon | PAC 10 | 7 |
| 7. | Ohio St. | Big 10 | 8 |
| 8. | Georgia Tech | ACC | 9 |
| 9. | East Carolina | Conference USA | (45) |
| 10. | Central Michigan | MAC | (48) |
| 11. | Troy | Sun Belt | (78) |
The highest rated independent this year is 9-4 Navy, but as the Midshipmen are nowhere close to the top 6, we remain with the eleven-team bracket of conference champions:
It is clear that the Mountain West and WAC belong among BCS conferences in terms of competition. Using the BCS's own rankings, the Mountain West champion TCU and WAC champion Boise State each rate higher than half of the BCS conference champions.
And this isn't a one-time fluke. Last year, the Mountain West champion Utah rated higher in the BCS than the champions of the Big 10, Big East, and ACC, en route to crushing this year's #1 seed Alabama from the SEC 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl. For its part, Boise State as the WAC champion last year was also rated higher than either Cincinnati (Big East) or Virginia Tech (ACC). It's getting harder and harder to claim that the six-conference BCS cabal functions in a tier of quality above the Mountain West or WAC. They simply don't.
How about Conference USA, MAC, or Sun Belt conferences? Is this the year for a first-round upset from among the bottom three in our fictional tournament? Nope, and it's not even close. Realistically looking at the performance of East Carolina, Central Michigan, and Troy against BCS conference competition suggests that they are each undeniably below the first tier. Of the three, Central Michigan had the lone win against a BCS school, having beaten an average Michigan State team in a close one. So for our first round of the tournament, we'll easily call the favorites this year in Oregon, Ohio St., and Georgia Tech.
The second round gets much harder, and what a terrific slew of games it could have been! We'll take Alabama over Georgia Tech pretty easily, but Texas vs. Ohio St. and Cincinnati vs. Oregon are much tougher to call. Really, these are toss-ups. The Longhorns and Buckeyes went toe-to-toe in last years' Fiesta Bowl, with the game not resolved in Texas' favor until a Colt McCoy touchdown pass settled it with 16 seconds left in the fourth quarter. This year, we'd pick Texas to win another close one on the grounds that the Big 10 was a little weaker on the whole. And with Oregon seeming to peak at the end of the season, and Cincinnati's Kelly jumping ship to Notre Dame, we'll give the edge in their fictional game to the Ducks.
This leaves us with the second round matchup of TCU vs. Boise State, an ironic parallel to this year's Fiesta Bowl game. It's a sign of the cowardice of the BCS powers-that-be that this matchup exists in real life. What would happen if each TCU and Boise State had the opportunity to take on, and beat top-notch BCS teams? TCU could absolutely compete with Florida this year; Boise State's offense would have given Iowa fits. The BCS could not afford to risk having both TCU and Boise State undefeated (and rated 2 & 3 respectively in every poll that matters) following the bowl games. It will be bad enough for the BCS that one of these two will be undefeated. And what of the fact that we have essentially the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl being replayed? Really? This same matchup two years in a row? Who's kidding whom, BCS? For our purposes, I'm predicting that TCU's defense will have what it takes to slow down Boise's potent offense and pull off a second bowl win in two years against the Broncos.
Our third-round Final Four then features Alabama vs. TCU and Texas vs. Oregon. TCU is a strong, deserving team this year but it's hard to see them overpowering Alabama. The Tide's running game is too strong, and quarterback Greg McElroy has an uncanny ability to make plays when they need to be made. The Horned Frogs play to Alabama's level for the first three quarters, with Alabama outlasting them in the fourth for a victory by two scores. Texas beats the Ducks in a closer, uglier contest. Oregon is capable of the upset, but we'll pick the 'Horns on the strength of Colt McCoy who also makes the plays that need to be made.
And the National Champion is...
So maybe when it comes down to it, the BCS has the right two teams in this year's championship game. We'd just feel more comfortable if they actually played the (playoff) games to prove that.
Alabama 34, Texas 17.
